USA vs China vs India GDP 2026
United States of America
World's largest developed economy with advanced technology and service sectors driving global GDP.
Conservative investors seeking stability, multinational corporations, and those prioritizing innovation and developed markets
People's Republic of China
World's second-largest economy and manufacturing powerhouse with $23.8 trillion projected GDP by 2026.
Supply chain investors, manufacturers, and those seeking exposure to global manufacturing leadership and emerging consumer markets
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
Fastest-growing major economy projected at $4.8 trillion GDP by 2026 with 6.0-6.5% annual growth.
Growth-focused investors seeking high returns, companies targeting emerging consumer markets, and those betting on long-term demographic dividends
Quick Answer
As of 2026 projections, the USA maintains the largest nominal GDP at approximately $28-29 trillion, while China is projected near $23-24 trillion despite rapid growth, and India is expected to reach $4.5-5 trillion as the fastest-growing major economy. India's economy is expanding at the highest rate but from a smaller base, while the USA remains dominant in per-capita income and technological innovation.
Full Comparison
| Attribute | United States of America | People's Republic of China | Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillions) | $31.82 trillion | $20.65 trillion | — |
| Nominal GDP(USD Trillions) | $27.4 trillion | $17.9 trillion | — |
| Projected 2026 Nominal GDP(USD Trillions) | $28.5T | $23.8T | $4.8T |
| Nominal GDP (Current)(USD Trillion) | $18.74T | — | — |
| GDP by Purchasing Power Parity 2026(USD trillion) | $31.82 trillion | $35.0+ trillion | — |
| Global GDP Share (Nominal)(percent) | 22.73% | 14.77% | — |
| Per Capita Income Multiplier (Nominal)(ratio) | 6.31x higher | 1.0x (baseline) | — |
| GDP Per Capita Nominal(USD) | $94,800 | $15,000 | — |
| Per Capita GDP(USD) | $76,398 | $12,556 | — |
| GDP Per Capita(USD) | $83,000 | $12,700 | — |
| EV Production Market Share(percent) | Emerging leader, <30% | 70% | — |
| Global Manufacturing Output(%) | ~15% | 35% | — |
| Combined Global Economic Share (Nominal)(percent) | 42.46% (combined US-China) | 42.46% (combined US-China) | — |
| Per Capita GDP (Nominal)(USD) | $89,000+ | $14,100 | — |
| Global GDP Market Share(Percentage (%)) | 23.6% | 15.2% | — |
| Electric Vehicle Production Share(%) | 18% | 70% | — |
| Solar Panel Production Share(percent) | ~15% | 80%+ | — |
| Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Production(%) | 6% | 94% | — |
| GDP Growth Rate 2026(%) | 2.5% | 4.7% | — |
| Government Expenditure(USD Million) | €10,266.8B | $6,240,157.8M | — |
| Defense Expenditure(Million Euros) | €925,796.8M | $313.7 billion | — |
| Defence Expenditure(USD billions) | €299,621.7M | — | — |
| Education Spending Per Capita(EUR) | €3,981 | €467 | — |
| Education Expenditure Per Capita(USD) | €469 | — | — |
| Global EV Production Share(%) | 20% | 70% | — |
| Lithium Battery Production Share(%) | 6% | 94% | — |
| GDP (Purchasing Power Parity)(USD Trillion) | $27.6 trillion | — | — |
| Gross Domestic Product (Nominal)(USD trillions) | $27.4 trillion | $17.9 trillion | — |
| Defense Spending(USD Billion) | $821 billion | — | — |
| Combat Helicopters(Count) | 6,300 | — | — |
| Active Military Personnel(thousands) | 1,290 thousand | — | — |
| Deployed Nuclear Warheads(count) | 1,770 | — | — |
| Military Expenditure(billion USD) | $820 billion | $296 billion | — |
| Military Expenditure (Annual)(USD Billions) | $820 billion | $292 billion | — |
| Military Expenditure (2024)(USD Billions) | $820 billion | — | — |
| Naval Destroyers(Count) | 57 | — | — |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves(USD Billions) | $130B | $3,200B | $610B |
| Technology Innovation Focus | Advanced semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, defense tech | — | — |
| Global AI Research Funding Share(percent) | 61% | 22% | — |
| Internet Users(millions) | 312 million | 1,050 million | — |
| Tech Sector Dominance(Market Leaders) | AI, semiconductors, cloud computing | 5G, renewables, EVs | IT services, software outsourcing |
| PPP-Adjusted GDP 2026(USD Trillions) | $15.29 trillion | $45.78 trillion | — |
| Total GDP (Nominal)(USD Trillion) | $30.1 trillion | $17.9 trillion | — |
| Total Gross Domestic Product(USD Trillion) | $27.3 trillion | $17.9 trillion | — |
| Projected GDP Growth Rate 2026(percent) | 2.0-2.5% | 4.5-4.8% | — |
| Annual GDP Growth Rate (2026)(%) | 2.0–2.5% | 4.6–4.8% | — |
| Average Annual GDP Growth Rate (2024-2026)(Percent) | 2.25% | 4.75% | 6.25% |
| GDP Growth Rate(%) | 4.8% | — | — |
| Annual GDP Growth Rate(Percent) | 5.0-5.3% | — | — |
| Global Manufacturing Output Share(%) | ~18% | 35% | — |
| Lithium-Ion Battery Production(percent) | 6% | 94% | — |
| Global Solar Panel Manufacturing(%) | <5% | 80%+ | — |
| Forecast Unemployment Rate (2026)(%) | 4.5% | ~4.0% (estimated) | — |
| Global Manufacturing Share(Percent of World) | 16% | 28% | 3% |
| Annual Exports (2024)(USD Trillions) | $2.9T | $7.8T | — |
| Military Spending(Billion USD) | $820 billion | $296 billion | — |
| R&D Spending as % of GDP(Percent) | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.65% |
| Patent Filings (2023)(total filings) | 665,263 | 1,574,205 | — |
| Annual Patent Filings(Number) | 813 thousand | 1,500 thousand | — |
| Patent Filings (Annual)(Thousands) | 371.8 | 1,200 | — |
| High-Speed Rail Network(km) | 735 km | 48,000 km | — |
| Public Transit Ridership(Billion trips annually) | 2.1 billion | — | — |
| High-Speed Rail Network Length(kilometers) | 735 km | 45,000 km | — |
| Total Land Area(million km²) | 9.8 million km² | — | — |
| Population Density(people/km²) | 36 people/sq mi | — | — |
| Population(millions) | 339 million | 1,400 million | — |
| Working Age Population (15-64)(Millions) | 206M | 920M | 870M |
| Median Age(Years) | 38.4 years | — | — |
| Healthcare Per Capita Cost(USD) | $12,914 per capita | — | — |
| Violent Crime Rate(per 100,000 people) | 4.7 per 100k | — | — |
| Homicide Rate(Per 100,000 people) | 4.8 | — | — |
| Gini Coefficient (Inequality)(index (0-1)) | 0.41 | — | — |
| Total GDP(Billion USD) | $27.4 trillion | $17.9 trillion | — |
| Gross Domestic Product(USD Trillion) | $27.3 trillion | $17.8 trillion | — |
| Gross Domestic Product (2024)(USD Trillions) | $27.4 trillion | — | — |
| Manufacturing Output(% of global) | 17% | 28% | — |
| GDP (Nominal)(USD Trillion) | $17.9 trillion | — | — |
| Human Development Index(Score 0-1) | 0.921 | — | — |
| Urbanization Rate(Percent of Population) | 82% | 63% | 35% |
| Top 50 Global Universities(count) | 27 universities | 8 universities | — |
| Foreign Direct Investment Inflow(billion USD) | $384 billion (2023) | $189 billion (2023) | — |
| Renewable Energy Capacity(Gigawatts) | 290 GW | 1,340 GW | — |
| Physicians per 1,000 People(Ratio) | 4.7 physicians | 2.1 physicians | — |
| Life Expectancy at Birth(years) | 78.9 years | 77.9 years | — |
| Healthcare Cost per Capita(USD) | $11,945 | — | — |
| Life Expectancy(years) | 78.9 years | 78.2 years | — |
| Annual International Visitor Arrivals(Millions) | 79.3 million | — | — |
| Share of Global Manufacturing(percent) | 16% | 28% | — |
| Annual CO2 Emissions(billion metric tons) | 5.0 billion | 12.1 billion | — |
| GDP Per Capita 2026(USD) | $84,000 | $17,000 | $3,400 |
| Expected Global GDP Ranking by 2030(Rank) | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
| JPMorgan Growth Leadership Outlook (2026)(Ranking) | Secondary | — | — |
| Government Expenditure as % of GDP(percent) | 32.94% | — | — |
| Government Health Expenditure(USD Million) | $620,062.8M | — | — |
| Debt Per Capita(EUR) | €11,242 | — | — |
Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillions)
United States of America
$31.82 trillion
People's Republic of China
$20.65 trillion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Nominal GDP(USD Trillions)
United States of America
$27.4 trillion
People's Republic of China
$17.9 trillion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Projected 2026 Nominal GDP(USD Trillions)
United States of America
$28.5T
People's Republic of China
$23.8T
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
$4.8T
Nominal GDP (Current)(USD Trillion)
United States of America
$18.74T
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
GDP by Purchasing Power Parity 2026(USD trillion)
United States of America
$31.82 trillion
People's Republic of China
$35.0+ trillion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Global GDP Share (Nominal)(percent)
United States of America
22.73%
People's Republic of China
14.77%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Per Capita Income Multiplier (Nominal)(ratio)
United States of America
6.31x higher
People's Republic of China
1.0x (baseline)
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
GDP Per Capita Nominal(USD)
United States of America
$94,800
People's Republic of China
$15,000
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Per Capita GDP(USD)
United States of America
$76,398
People's Republic of China
$12,556
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
GDP Per Capita(USD)
United States of America
$83,000
People's Republic of China
$12,700
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
EV Production Market Share(percent)
United States of America
Emerging leader, <30%
People's Republic of China
70%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Global Manufacturing Output(%)
United States of America
~15%
People's Republic of China
35%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Combined Global Economic Share (Nominal)(percent)
United States of America
42.46% (combined US-China)
People's Republic of China
42.46% (combined US-China)
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Per Capita GDP (Nominal)(USD)
United States of America
$89,000+
People's Republic of China
$14,100
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Global GDP Market Share(Percentage (%))
United States of America
23.6%
People's Republic of China
15.2%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Electric Vehicle Production Share(%)
United States of America
18%
People's Republic of China
70%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Solar Panel Production Share(percent)
United States of America
~15%
People's Republic of China
80%+
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Production(%)
United States of America
6%
People's Republic of China
94%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
GDP Growth Rate 2026(%)
United States of America
2.5%
People's Republic of China
4.7%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Government Expenditure(USD Million)
United States of America
€10,266.8B
People's Republic of China
$6,240,157.8M
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Defense Expenditure(Million Euros)
United States of America
€925,796.8M
People's Republic of China
$313.7 billion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Defence Expenditure(USD billions)
United States of America
€299,621.7M
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Education Spending Per Capita(EUR)
United States of America
€3,981
People's Republic of China
€467
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Education Expenditure Per Capita(USD)
United States of America
€469
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Global EV Production Share(%)
United States of America
20%
People's Republic of China
70%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Lithium Battery Production Share(%)
United States of America
6%
People's Republic of China
94%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
GDP (Purchasing Power Parity)(USD Trillion)
United States of America
$27.6 trillion
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Gross Domestic Product (Nominal)(USD trillions)
United States of America
$27.4 trillion
People's Republic of China
$17.9 trillion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Defense Spending(USD Billion)
United States of America
$821 billion
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Combat Helicopters(Count)
United States of America
6,300
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Active Military Personnel(thousands)
United States of America
1,290 thousand
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Deployed Nuclear Warheads(count)
United States of America
1,770
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Military Expenditure(billion USD)
United States of America
$820 billion
People's Republic of China
$296 billion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Military Expenditure (Annual)(USD Billions)
United States of America
$820 billion
People's Republic of China
$292 billion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Military Expenditure (2024)(USD Billions)
United States of America
$820 billion
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Naval Destroyers(Count)
United States of America
57
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Foreign Exchange Reserves(USD Billions)
United States of America
$130B
People's Republic of China
$3,200B
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
$610B
Technology Innovation Focus
United States of America
Advanced semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, defense tech
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Global AI Research Funding Share(percent)
United States of America
61%
People's Republic of China
22%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Internet Users(millions)
United States of America
312 million
People's Republic of China
1,050 million
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Tech Sector Dominance(Market Leaders)
United States of America
AI, semiconductors, cloud computing
People's Republic of China
5G, renewables, EVs
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
IT services, software outsourcing
PPP-Adjusted GDP 2026(USD Trillions)
United States of America
$15.29 trillion
People's Republic of China
$45.78 trillion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Total GDP (Nominal)(USD Trillion)
United States of America
$30.1 trillion
People's Republic of China
$17.9 trillion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Total Gross Domestic Product(USD Trillion)
United States of America
$27.3 trillion
People's Republic of China
$17.9 trillion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Projected GDP Growth Rate 2026(percent)
United States of America
2.0-2.5%
People's Republic of China
4.5-4.8%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Annual GDP Growth Rate (2026)(%)
United States of America
2.0–2.5%
People's Republic of China
4.6–4.8%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Average Annual GDP Growth Rate (2024-2026)(Percent)
United States of America
2.25%
People's Republic of China
4.75%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
6.25%
GDP Growth Rate(%)
United States of America
4.8%
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Annual GDP Growth Rate(Percent)
United States of America
5.0-5.3%
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Global Manufacturing Output Share(%)
United States of America
~18%
People's Republic of China
35%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Lithium-Ion Battery Production(percent)
United States of America
6%
People's Republic of China
94%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Global Solar Panel Manufacturing(%)
United States of America
<5%
People's Republic of China
80%+
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Forecast Unemployment Rate (2026)(%)
United States of America
4.5%
People's Republic of China
~4.0% (estimated)
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Global Manufacturing Share(Percent of World)
United States of America
16%
People's Republic of China
28%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
3%
Annual Exports (2024)(USD Trillions)
United States of America
$2.9T
People's Republic of China
$7.8T
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Military Spending(Billion USD)
United States of America
$820 billion
People's Republic of China
$296 billion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
R&D Spending as % of GDP(Percent)
United States of America
3.4%
People's Republic of China
2.1%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
0.65%
Patent Filings (2023)(total filings)
United States of America
665,263
People's Republic of China
1,574,205
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Annual Patent Filings(Number)
United States of America
813 thousand
People's Republic of China
1,500 thousand
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Patent Filings (Annual)(Thousands)
United States of America
371.8
People's Republic of China
1,200
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
High-Speed Rail Network(km)
United States of America
735 km
People's Republic of China
48,000 km
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Public Transit Ridership(Billion trips annually)
United States of America
2.1 billion
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
High-Speed Rail Network Length(kilometers)
United States of America
735 km
People's Republic of China
45,000 km
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Total Land Area(million km²)
United States of America
9.8 million km²
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Population Density(people/km²)
United States of America
36 people/sq mi
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Population(millions)
United States of America
339 million
People's Republic of China
1,400 million
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Working Age Population (15-64)(Millions)
United States of America
206M
People's Republic of China
920M
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
870M
Median Age(Years)
United States of America
38.4 years
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Healthcare Per Capita Cost(USD)
United States of America
$12,914 per capita
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Violent Crime Rate(per 100,000 people)
United States of America
4.7 per 100k
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Homicide Rate(Per 100,000 people)
United States of America
4.8
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Gini Coefficient (Inequality)(index (0-1))
United States of America
0.41
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Total GDP(Billion USD)
United States of America
$27.4 trillion
People's Republic of China
$17.9 trillion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Gross Domestic Product(USD Trillion)
United States of America
$27.3 trillion
People's Republic of China
$17.8 trillion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Gross Domestic Product (2024)(USD Trillions)
United States of America
$27.4 trillion
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Manufacturing Output(% of global)
United States of America
17%
People's Republic of China
28%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
GDP (Nominal)(USD Trillion)
United States of America
$17.9 trillion
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Human Development Index(Score 0-1)
United States of America
0.921
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Urbanization Rate(Percent of Population)
United States of America
82%
People's Republic of China
63%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
35%
Top 50 Global Universities(count)
United States of America
27 universities
People's Republic of China
8 universities
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Foreign Direct Investment Inflow(billion USD)
United States of America
$384 billion (2023)
People's Republic of China
$189 billion (2023)
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Renewable Energy Capacity(Gigawatts)
United States of America
290 GW
People's Republic of China
1,340 GW
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Physicians per 1,000 People(Ratio)
United States of America
4.7 physicians
People's Republic of China
2.1 physicians
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Life Expectancy at Birth(years)
United States of America
78.9 years
People's Republic of China
77.9 years
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Healthcare Cost per Capita(USD)
United States of America
$11,945
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Life Expectancy(years)
United States of America
78.9 years
People's Republic of China
78.2 years
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Annual International Visitor Arrivals(Millions)
United States of America
79.3 million
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Share of Global Manufacturing(percent)
United States of America
16%
People's Republic of China
28%
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Annual CO2 Emissions(billion metric tons)
United States of America
5.0 billion
People's Republic of China
12.1 billion
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
GDP Per Capita 2026(USD)
United States of America
$84,000
People's Republic of China
$17,000
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
$3,400
Expected Global GDP Ranking by 2030(Rank)
United States of America
1st
People's Republic of China
2nd
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
3rd
JPMorgan Growth Leadership Outlook (2026)(Ranking)
United States of America
Secondary
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Government Expenditure as % of GDP(percent)
United States of America
32.94%
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Government Health Expenditure(USD Million)
United States of America
$620,062.8M
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Debt Per Capita(EUR)
United States of America
€11,242
People's Republic of China
—
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
—
Pros & Cons
United States of America
Pros
- Maintains largest nominal GDP at ~$28.5 trillion in 2026
- Highest GDP per capita at $84,000 with strongest purchasing power
- Dominates technology, finance, and innovation sectors with unmatched R&D investment
- Largest foreign direct investment inflows and deepest capital markets
- Stable democratic institutions and rule of law supporting business confidence
Cons
- Slowest growth rate among the three at 2.0-2.5% annually
- Aging population reducing workforce growth potential
- Rising national debt and fiscal challenges
People's Republic of China
Pros
- Second-largest nominal GDP with $23.8 trillion projection for 2026
- Holds $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, highest globally
- Manufactures 28% of world's goods with unmatched supply chain scale
- Sustained growth rate of 4.5-5.0% driven by continued urbanization
- Rapid advancement in 5G, EV, and renewable energy sectors
Cons
- Slowing demographic growth with aging population concerns
- Property sector debt and regional economic imbalances
Republic of India GDP 2026 Projection
Pros
- Highest growth rate among major economies at 6.0-6.5% annually
- Youngest demographic profile with 1.4+ billion population providing massive labor force
- Rapidly expanding services and IT sectors attracting global talent
- $610 billion foreign exchange reserves with improving financial stability
- Expected to become world's 3rd-largest nominal GDP by 2030
Cons
- Lowest GDP per capita at $3,400, indicating income inequality challenges
- Infrastructure development gaps and inconsistent implementation
- Political and regulatory volatility affecting business predictability
Verdict
Choose USA if you prioritize the world's largest nominal economy with the strongest per-capita wealth, most advanced technological ecosystem, and proven financial stability—ideal for investors seeking established markets and innovation leadership. Choose China if you want exposure to the second-largest economy with massive manufacturing capacity, substantial foreign reserves, and moderate growth rates—suitable for those focused on supply chain dominance and emerging market exposure. Choose India if you seek the fastest-growing major economy with the highest expansion rates, a young demographic dividend, and untapped market potential—best for long-term growth investors willing to accept higher volatility and developing infrastructure.
Frequently Asked Questions
No. By 2026, India's nominal GDP is projected at $4.8 trillion versus China's $23.8 trillion. However, India is catching up much faster and may surpass China in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms by 2027-2028, but nominal GDP parity is unlikely before 2040+.
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