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Denver Nuggets vs Thunder 2026: Who Wins?

The Denver Nuggets remain among the NBA's elite teams with their championship-caliber roster anchored by Jokic, while the Oklahoma City Thunder have established themselves as Western Conference contenders with exceptional depth and defensive prowess. Both franchises feature dynamic offensive weapons and will compete heavily for playoff positioning throughout the season.

Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets

2023 NBA Champions with a historically great MVP-caliber point guard and established winning culture.

Fans and analysts valuing championship experience and superstar dominance in the short term

Score63%
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder

Western Conference leader with elite offensive efficiency and balanced scoring depth

Forward-thinking fans and analysts betting on sustained excellence and organizational sustainability

Score63%

Quick Answer

AI Summary

The Denver Nuggets remain among the NBA's elite teams with their championship-caliber roster anchored by Jokic, while the Oklahoma City Thunder have established themselves as Western Conference contenders with exceptional depth and defensive prowess. Both franchises feature dynamic offensive weapons and will compete heavily for playoff positioning throughout the season.

Our Verdict

AI-assisted

The Denver Nuggets remain the more proven championship contender with Jokic's elite playmaking and scoring, but the Oklahoma City Thunder present a legitimate threat with superior depth, youth, and defense. Choose the Nuggets if you value championship pedigree and superstar dominance; choose the Thunder if you prefer a balanced, sustainable roster built for long-term success.

Community feedback

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Denver Nuggets
7.5/10
Oklahoma City Thunder
7.5/10

TIE — neck and neck

Denver Nuggets

Choose Denver Nuggets if

Fans and analysts valuing championship experience and superstar dominance in the short term

Oklahoma City Thunder

Choose Oklahoma City Thunder if

Forward-thinking fans and analysts betting on sustained excellence and organizational sustainability

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Key Differences at a Glance

  • Championship History:Denver Nuggets wins(1 NBA Championship (2023) vs 0 NBA Championships)
  • 2024-25 Win-Loss Record:Oklahoma City Thunder wins(39-26 (as of Jan 2025) vs 37-28 (as of Jan 2025))
  • Star Player (MVP Caliber):Denver Nuggets wins(Nikola Jokic (3x MVP, 2.67 APG) vs Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (All-Star, 8.8 APG))
See all 7 differences

Key Facts & Figures

101 numeric metrics compared

MetricDenver NuggetsOklahoma City ThunderRatio
Nikola Jokic Points Per Game (2025-26)(PPG)27.2
Team Offensive Rating (2025-26)(Points per 100 possessions)113.8
Team Defensive Rating (2025-26)(Points per 100 possessions)107.2
Championships Won(titles)1 (2023)
Jamal Murray / Paul George Assists (2025-26)(APG)7.8 (Murray)
Three-Point Shooting Percentage(%)37.2%38.1%
Average Team Payroll (2025-26)(Million USD)$182M
Nikola Jokic Points Per Game(PPG)33.6 PPGN/A
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Per Game(PPG)N/A30.1 PPG
Team Defensive Rating(points per 100 possessions)112.8110.2
2023-24 Win-Loss Record(Wins)57-2556-26
Average Team Age(years)27.8 years24.8
Offensive Rating(points per 100 possessions)118.3116.2
Playoff Appearances (Last 5 Years)(seasons)5 (all 5 years)5 of 5
Championship Titles(titles)1
Defensive Rating(points per 100 possessions)109.2108.3
Net Rating(point differential per 100 possessions)+7.7+7.9
Bench Scoring(points per game)28.428.4
Three-Point Percentage(%)37.8%37.2%
Final Score(points)129126
Aaron Gordon Points(points)23N/A
Aaron Gordon Field Goal %(%)42.9% (6-14 FG)N/A
Aaron Gordon Three-Point %(%)50% (2-4 3P)N/A
Aaron Gordon Free Throw %(%)90% (9-10 FT)N/A
Aaron Gordon Plus-Minus(rating)+14N/A
NBA Championship Titles(championships)1 (2024)0
Offensive Efficiency Rating(points per 100 possessions)113.8
Defensive Efficiency Rating(points allowed per 100 possessions)108.9
Field Goal Percentage(%)50.1%48.1%
Nikola Jokic vs Kawhi Leonard True Shooting %(%)Nikola Jokic 63.4%
Playoff Finals Appearances (Franchise History)(Finals trips)3 (2023, 2024, 2009 runner-up)
Team Offensive Rating(points per 100 possessions)117.3115.9
Payroll (2024-25)(million USD)$195.7M$176.4M
Average Roster Age(years)29.224.8
NBA Finals Appearances (2022-2025)(appearances)20
Chet Holmgren Block Rate(blocks per game)N/A2.8 BPG
NBA Championships Won(Titles)1 (2023)0
2023-2024 Regular Season Points Per Game(PPG)113.2
2023-2024 Regular Season Defensive Rating(points per 100 possessions)111.6
MVP Awards (Current/Recent)(MVPs)1 (Nikola Jokic, 2024)
Western Conference Finals Appearances (2021-2024)(appearances)3
All-Star Players on Roster (2024-2025)(players)3
Nikola Jokic vs Kawhi Leonard 2023-2024 PPG(PPG)30.1 (Jokic)
Leading Scorer PPG Average(Points per game)Nikola Jokic 27.8 PPGShai Gilgeous-Alexander 29.3 PPG
MVP Awards (All-Time)(Awards)3 (Nikola Jokic 2021, 2022, 2024)0
Core Roster Average Age(Years)30.1 years24.3 years
Team Payroll(USD Millions)$218 million$165 million
Points Per Game (2024-25)(PPG)119.3116.8
Defensive Rating (2024-25)(points per 100 possessions)109.8105.2
Leading Scorer Average (2024-25)(PPG)28.1 (Jokic)30.1 (SGA)
Assists Per Game (2024-25)(APG)11.28.1
Salary Cap Situation(USD millions)$184 million (in luxury tax)$134 million ($50M under)
Leading Scorer PPG(points per game)Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30.1 PPGShai Gilgeous-Alexander 30.1 PPG
Rebounds Per Game (Team)(rebounds)47.147.1
Assists Per Game (Team)(assists)28.428.4
Steals Per Game (Team)(steals)8.98.9
Points Per Game (Team Scoring)(PPG)116.8116.8
Leading Scorer Average(PPG)28.1 (SGA)28.1 (SGA)
Team Assists Per Game(APG)28.328.3
Playoff Seed Position(Seed Ranking)2nd (West)2nd (West)
3-Point Percentage(percent)37.9%37.9%
Average Points Per Game(points)117.8117.8
Conference Rank(position)1st (Western)1st (Western)
All-Star Selections(players)3 All-Stars3 All-Stars
Playoff Seed(seed ranking)1st seed1st seed
Points Per Game(points)118.5118.5
Points Allowed Per Game(PPG)109.3109.3
Star Player PPG Average(PPG)30.2 (SGA)30.2 (SGA)
All-Time Championships(titles)00
Playoff Appearances (2021-2026)(appearances)44
Coach Tenure(seasons)6 seasons6 seasons
Expected Win Total (2025-26)(wins)48-5248-52
Offensive Rating Potential(points per 100)115.2115.2
Assists Leader APG(Assists Per Game)10.9 (SGA)10.9 (SGA)
Rebounds Leader RPG(Rebounds Per Game)10+ (Holmgren)10+ (Holmgren)
Rebounds Per Game(RPG)46.246.2
Games Back From Playoff Position(GB)-5.5 (leading)-5.5 (leading)
Roster Average Age(years)25.325.3
2026 NBA All-Star Selections(players)33
Playoff Seeding(seed ranking)1st1st
Net Rating (scoring margin per 100 possessions)(points)+10.6+10.6
All-NBA Caliber Superstars(count)3 (Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Dort)3 (Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Dort)
Western Conference Playoff Seeding(seed)1st (projected)1st (projected)
Playoff Probability(percent)99%99%
NBA Championship Odds (2026 season)(decimal odds)+400+400
Payroll(USD millions)$163M$163M
Three-Point Percentage (team)(percent)36.2%36.2%
Net Rating (Differential)(points per 100 possessions)+9.5+9.5
All-Time NBA Championships(titles)11
Playoff Appearances (Last 10 Seasons)(appearances)99
2025-26 Payroll(USD millions)$145.8M$145.8M
Three-Point Shooting(percentage)38.1%38.1%
Point Differential(points per game)+8.9+8.9
Western Conference Seed(ranking)1st Seed1st Seed
Star Player PPG(points per game)Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 28.4Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 28.4
Western Conference Ranking(seed position)1st seed1st seed
Points Per Game (Offense)(PPG)112.4112.4
Points Allowed Per Game (Defense)(PPG)105.2105.2
Leading Scorer - Points Per Game(PPG)Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30.1
Team 3-Point Percentage(%)37.2%37.2%
Assists Per Game(APG)28.328.3

Sourced from publicly available data ·

Key Differences

7 attributes compared head-to-head

Denver Nuggets
2Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder leads
Oklahoma City Thunder
5Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Championship History

    Denver Nuggets

    1 NBA Championship (2023)(winner)

    Oklahoma City Thunder

    0 NBA Championships

  • 2024-25 Win-Loss Record

    Denver Nuggets

    37-28 (as of Jan 2025)

    Oklahoma City Thunder

    39-26 (as of Jan 2025)(winner)

  • Star Player (MVP Caliber)

    Denver Nuggets

    Nikola Jokic (3x MVP, 2.67 APG)(winner)

    Oklahoma City Thunder

    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (All-Star, 8.8 APG)

  • Defensive Rating (2024-25)

    Denver Nuggets

    109.8 points per 100 possessions

    Oklahoma City Thunder

    105.2 points per 100 possessions(winner)

  • Average Roster Age

    Denver Nuggets

    29.2 years

    Oklahoma City Thunder

    24.8 years(winner)

  • Projected Payroll 2024-25

    Denver Nuggets

    $184 million (luxury tax)

    Oklahoma City Thunder

    $134 million (under cap)(winner)

  • Three-Point Shooting Percentage

    Denver Nuggets

    37.2%

    Oklahoma City Thunder

    38.1%(winner)

Full Comparison

Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder
Nikola Jokic Points Per Game (2025-26)(PPG)
27.2
Kawhi Leonard Points Per Game (2025-26)(PPG)
N/A
Team Offensive Rating (2025-26)(Points per 100 possessions)
113.8
Team Defensive Rating (2025-26)(Points per 100 possessions)
107.2
Net Rating(point differential per 100 possessions)
+7.7
+7.9
Championships Won(titles)
1 (2023)
Jamal Murray / Paul George Assists (2025-26)(APG)
7.8 (Murray)
Three-Point Shooting Percentage(%)
37.2%
38.1%
Aaron Gordon Field Goal %(%)
42.9% (6-14 FG)
N/A
Aaron Gordon Three-Point %(%)
50% (2-4 3P)
N/A
Aaron Gordon Free Throw %(%)
90% (9-10 FT)
N/A
Field Goal Percentage(%)
50.1%
48.1%
Show 2 more attributes
Three-Point Percentage (team)(percent)
36.2%
Team 3-Point Percentage(%)
37.2%
Average Team Payroll (2025-26)(Million USD)
$182M
2025-26 Payroll(USD millions)
$145.8M
Nikola Jokic Points Per Game(PPG)
33.6 PPG
N/A
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Per Game(PPG)
N/A
30.1 PPG
Team Defensive Rating(points per 100 possessions)
112.8
110.2
Defensive Rating(points per 100 possessions)
109.2
108.3
Defensive Efficiency Rating(points allowed per 100 possessions)
108.9
2023-2024 Regular Season Defensive Rating(points per 100 possessions)
111.6
Steals Per Game (Team)(steals)
8.9
Show 1 more attribute
Points Allowed Per Game (Defense)(PPG)
105.2
2023-24 Win-Loss Record(Wins)
57-25
56-26
Regular Season Record(Wins-Losses)
57-16
Win-Loss Record (2024-25 season)(Wins-Losses)
47-15
Average Team Age(years)
27.8 years
24.8
Average Roster Age(years)
29.2
24.8
Roster Average Age(years)
25.3
Offensive Rating(points per 100 possessions)
118.3
116.2
Three-Point Percentage(%)
37.8%
37.2%
Team Offensive Rating(points per 100 possessions)
117.3
115.9
2023-2024 Regular Season Points Per Game(PPG)
113.2
Assists Per Game (Team)(assists)
28.4
Show 2 more attributes
Points Per Game (Team Scoring)(PPG)
116.8
Three-Point Shooting(percentage)
38.1%
Playoff Appearances (Last 5 Years)(seasons)
5 (all 5 years)
5 of 5
Championship Titles(titles)
1
NBA Championship Titles(championships)
1 (2024)
0
Star Player (Primary)
Nikola Jokic (MVP)
Star Player PPG Average(PPG)
30.2 (SGA)
All-NBA Caliber Superstars(count)
3 (Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Dort)
Bench Scoring(points per game)
28.4
28.4
Most Recent Playoff Round
Finals (2024)
Last Conference Finals Appearance(year)
Never
Final Score(points)
129
126
Location
Away - Denver, CO
Home - Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Aaron Gordon Points(points)
23
N/A
Aaron Gordon Plus-Minus(rating)
+14
N/A
Game-Winning Play
Jokic 3P (0:08 remaining) - 125-126
Gilgeous-Alexander stepback 3P (0:03 remaining) - 126-129
2024-25 Regular Season Record(wins-losses)
35-18
Current Season Win-Loss Record(wins-losses)
28-16
32-12
Season Record (2025-26)(wins-losses)
47-22
Wins-Losses Record (2025-26)(W-L)
65-17
Current Win-Loss Record (2024-25 season)
40-12
Show 3 more attributes
Western Conference Playoff Seeding(seed)
1st (projected)
2025-26 Regular Season Record(wins-losses)
52-30
Net Rating (Differential)(points per 100 possessions)
+9.5
Offensive Efficiency Rating(points per 100 possessions)
113.8
Average Points Per Game(points)
117.8
Points Per Game (Offense)(PPG)
112.4
Nikola Jokic vs Kawhi Leonard True Shooting %(%)
Nikola Jokic 63.4%
Playoff Finals Appearances (Franchise History)(Finals trips)
3 (2023, 2024, 2009 runner-up)
Nikola Jokic vs Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Best Player Comparison)(PPG / APG / eFG%)
29.1 PPG / 9.0 APG / 66.3% eFG% (Jokic)
30.1 PPG / 6.5 APG / 60.1% eFG% (SGA)
2026 NBA All-Star Selections(players)
3
Payroll (2024-25)(million USD)
$195.7M
$176.4M
NBA Finals Appearances (2022-2025)(appearances)
2
0
Western Conference Finals Appearances (2021-2024)(appearances)
3
Chet Holmgren Block Rate(blocks per game)
N/A
2.8 BPG
NBA Championships Won(Titles)
1 (2023)
0
MVP Awards (All-Time)(Awards)
3 (Nikola Jokic 2021, 2022, 2024)
0
All-Time NBA Championships(titles)
1
MVP Awards (Current/Recent)(MVPs)
1 (Nikola Jokic, 2024)
2024 Playoff Series Record(wins-losses)
16-4
All-Star Players on Roster (2024-2025)(players)
3
Nikola Jokic vs Kawhi Leonard 2023-2024 PPG(PPG)
30.1 (Jokic)
2024-25 Regular Season Win-Loss Record(Wins-Losses)
29-15
36-8
Leading Scorer PPG Average(Points per game)
Nikola Jokic 27.8 PPG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 29.3 PPG
Leading Scorer(points per game)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30.1 PPG
Core Roster Average Age(Years)
30.1 years
24.3 years
Team Payroll(USD Millions)
$218 million
$165 million
Points Per Game (2024-25)(PPG)
119.3
116.8
Defensive Rating (2024-25)(points per 100 possessions)
109.8
105.2
Leading Scorer Average (2024-25)(PPG)
28.1 (Jokic)
30.1 (SGA)
Assists Per Game (2024-25)(APG)
11.2
8.1
Assists Leader APG(Assists Per Game)
10.9 (SGA)
Salary Cap Situation(USD millions)
$184 million (in luxury tax)
$134 million ($50M under)
Win-Loss Record(W-L)
36-12
Leading Scorer PPG(points per game)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30.1 PPG
Rebounds Per Game (Team)(rebounds)
47.1
Rebounds Leader RPG(Rebounds Per Game)
10+ (Holmgren)
Rebounds Per Game(RPG)
46.2
Leading Scorer Average(PPG)
28.1 (SGA)
Leading Scorer - Points Per Game(PPG)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30.1
Team Assists Per Game(APG)
28.3
Assists Per Game(APG)
28.3
Playoff Seed Position(Seed Ranking)
2nd (West)
Conference Rank(position)
1st (Western)
Playoff Seed(seed ranking)
1st seed
Conference Standing(Seed/Rank)
1st (West)
Games Back From Playoff Position(GB)
-5.5 (leading)
Show 2 more attributes
Point Differential(points per game)
+8.9
Western Conference Seed(ranking)
1st Seed
3-Point Percentage(percent)
37.9%
All-Star Selections(players)
3 All-Stars
Points Per Game(points)
118.5
Points Allowed Per Game(PPG)
109.3
All-Time Championships(titles)
0
Playoff Appearances (2021-2026)(appearances)
4
Current Star Player Rating(NBA tier)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Elite)
Coach Tenure(seasons)
6 seasons
Expected Win Total (2025-26)(wins)
48-52
Offensive Rating Potential(points per 100)
115.2
Head-to-Head Result (HOU@OKC)(Final Score)
110 points
Third Quarter Dominance(Scoring Margin)
Led 52-46 at halftime
Bench Depth Indicator(Contributing Players)
Williams, Holmgren, SGA balanced attack
Playoff Seeding(seed ranking)
1st
Net Rating (scoring margin per 100 possessions)(points)
+10.6
Playoff Probability(percent)
99%
NBA Championship Odds (2026 season)(decimal odds)
+400
Payroll(USD millions)
$163M
Playoff Appearances (Last 10 Seasons)(appearances)
9
Wins-Losses Record(W-L)
32-10
Regular Season Wins-Losses
38-8
Star Player PPG(points per game)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 28.4
Western Conference Ranking(seed position)
1st seed

Pros & Cons

10 pros·6 cons across both

Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets

+5-3

Pros

  • Nikola Jokic: 3x NBA MVP with 28.1 PPG and elite playmaking
  • Proven championship experience and success (2023 title)
  • Jamal Murray: All-Star caliber second star with clutch performance
  • Experienced coaching with Mike Malone's playoff success
  • High offensive efficiency with 119.3 PPG (top 5 in league)

Cons

  • Aging roster with average age of 29.2 years limits future flexibility
  • Over $184 million payroll creates luxury tax constraints for upgrades
  • Defensive vulnerabilities (109.8 rating, 21st in league) exposed in playoffs
Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder

+5-3

Pros

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Elite two-way player with 30.1 PPG and All-NBA defense
  • League-leading defense (105.2 rating, 1st in NBA) with multiple capable defenders
  • Exceptional depth: 6 players scoring 12+ PPG consistently
  • Young core (average age 24.8) provides 5-7 year championship window
  • $50 million under salary cap enables mid-season trades and free agency moves

Cons

  • Lack of playoff experience: only 1 playoff series win since 2012
  • No Finals appearance or championship experience limits proven clutch execution
  • Limited star power compared to other Western Conference contenders

Frequently Asked Questions

5 questions

  1. Based on 2024-25 regular season performance (as of January 2025), the Oklahoma City Thunder hold a slight edge with a 39-26 record versus Denver's 37-28. However, the Nuggets' championship experience and superstar Nikola Jokic give them the edge in playoff scenarios. The Thunder's defense (105.2 rating) is significantly superior to Denver's (109.8 rating), but Jokic's playmaking (11.2 APG) and Denver's offensive firepower (119.3 PPG) remain elite.

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