How close is China's economy to overtaking the US?

At current growth rates, China's nominal GDP could approach parity with the US by 2035-2040, though the US maintains substantial advantages in per-capita wealth and technological innovation. However, tariff impacts and supply chain disruptions could reduce China's growth by 0.5-2 percentage points, slowing convergence. Most economists expect the US to remain the world's largest nominal economy through the 2030s, though China may surpass it in total manufacturing capacity and select strategic industries.

Why does China grow faster than the US?

China's faster growth (4.6-4.8% vs 2.0-2.5%) stems from lower economic maturity, active fiscal stimulus programs, massive manufacturing investments, and government-directed industrial policies. The US, as a mature economy, naturally grows slower but generates higher per-capita income. China's growth is also boosted by technological adoption in EVs and AI manufacturing, though it faces headwinds from US export controls on advanced semiconductors.

What are the economic impacts of US-China tariffs?

Goldman Sachs and ECB analyses estimate US tariffs could reduce China's GDP growth by 0.5-2 percentage points annually, potentially shaving $400-800 billion from its economy through reduced exports and supply chain disruptions. For the US, tariffs on Chinese goods increase inflation pressures and consumer costs, though they aim to protect domestic manufacturing. Both economies face reduced efficiency from trade fragmentation, though the impact on China's export-dependent model is typically larger.

In which sectors does China outcompete the US?

China dominates manufacturing (35% global output), EV production (70% of global share), battery production (94% of lithium-iron phosphate), solar panels (80%+ global), and rare earth processing. The US maintains clear leads in semiconductors, software/cloud computing, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, and defense technology. These complementary strengths suggest both economies will remain economically interdependent despite geopolitical tensions.

Is China's GDP data reliable?

The Federal Reserve's 2025 analysis indicates China's GDP statistics have become significantly more accurate in recent years, though methodological differences persist between China's directive GDP (government-targeted growth) and the US's descriptive GDP (market-determined). Some researchers supplement official data with satellite imagery and alternative metrics. Most economists now view China's reported figures as broadly credible, though sector-level data may have greater variance.

China vs US Economy Size

Updated March 27, 2026

China's Economy

World's manufacturing powerhouse with rapid growth, EV/renewable dominance, and projected largest GDP by 2026

Investors seeking exposure to manufacturing growth, renewable energy, and emerging market expansion; companies in battery, solar, and EV supply chains

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US Economy

The world's largest economy with projected 2.3% GDP growth in 2026 and dominant S&P 500 corporate earnings.

Investors prioritizing innovation, technology exposure, and institutional stability; companies in advanced semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and software services

Short Answer

The US economy remains larger in nominal GDP terms at approximately $27.4 trillion versus China's $17.9 trillion, but China is closing the gap with 4.6-4.8% growth driven by fiscal stimulus and manufacturing dominance. China leads in manufacturing output, renewable energy production, and EV technology, while the US maintains advantages in semiconductor innovation, defense spending, and per-capita wealth.

Our Verdict

The US maintains the world's largest economy by nominal GDP with greater total government resources and military capacity, providing significant geopolitical advantages. However, China's rapid growth rate, manufacturing dominance, and leadership in emerging technologies like EVs and renewable energy position it as a formidable economic competitor that could narrow the gap significantly by 2030. The two economies represent fundamentally different models—China's directive GDP targeting growth through industrial policy versus the US's market-driven approach—each with distinct strengths and vulnerabilities.

China's Economy8.5

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Key Differences at a Glance

💵

Nominal GDP (2024): US Economy wins ($27.4 trillion vs $17.9 trillion)

💵

GDP Growth Rate (2025-2026 projected): China's Economy wins (4.6-4.8% vs 2.0-2.5%)

🔹

Global Manufacturing Output Share: China's Economy wins (35% of global output vs 18% of global output)

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Key Facts & Figures

Metric	China's Economy	US Economy	Diff
Total Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillion)	~$31.7 trillion	—	—
GDP Growth Rate 2026(%)	4.6-4.8%	1.9%	+147%
Per Capita GDP(USD)	$12,700	$89,500

Key Differences

China's Economy

Attribute

US Economy

$17.9 trillion

Nominal GDP (2024)

$27.4 trillion🏆

4.6-4.8%🏆

GDP Growth Rate (2025-2026 projected)

2.0-2.5%

35% of global output🏆

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Last updated: March 27, 2026AI generated

Nominal GDP (2024)

China's Economy

$17.9 trillion

US Economy

$27.4 trillion🏆

GDP Growth Rate (2025-2026 projected)

China's Economy

4.6-4.8%🏆

US Economy

2.0-2.5%

Global Manufacturing Output Share

China's Economy

35% of global output🏆

US Economy

18% of global output

Defense Expenditure (2024)

China's Economy

$296.5 billion

US Economy

$925.8 billion🏆

EV Production (Global Share)

China's Economy

70% of global EVs🏆

US Economy

12% of global EVs

Government Expenditure (2024)

China's Economy

$6.2 trillion

US Economy

$11.1 trillion🏆

Per Capita Education Spending (2022-2023)

China's Economy

€467 per capita

US Economy

€3,981 per capita🏆

Full Comparison

Attribute	China's Economy	US Economy

Total Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillion)	~$31.7 trillion	—
Total GDP 2026(USD Trillions)	~27-28 trillion	$30+ trillion
Nominal GDP(trillion USD)	$31.8T	—

GDP Growth Rate 2026(%)	4.6-4.8%	1.9%
2026 GDP Growth Forecast(%)	2.3%	—

Per Capita GDP(USD)	$12,700	$89,500
GDP Per Capita(USD)	~$19,500-20,000	$89,000

Global EV Production Share(%)	70%	~15%

Global Battery (LFP) Production(%)	94%	—

Global Manufacturing Output(%)	35%	12%

Unemployment Rate 2026 (Projected)(%)	~4.1%	—
Unemployment Stability(outlook)	Expected stable	—

Advanced Semiconductor Market Leadership(Qualitative)	Limited by US export controls; dependent on SMIC/HiSilicon	—
Semiconductor & Chip Design Leadership(Qualitative)	Limited by US export controls	—
Semiconductor Design Leadership(Market Position)	Constrained by US export controls	Dominant globally

Nominal GDP (2024)(trillion USD)	$17.9 trillion	$27.4 trillion

Defense Expenditure (2024)(EUR Billion)	$296.5 billion	$925.8 billion
Defense Expenditure 2024(USD Billion)	€296.5 billion	—

EV Production Share(% of global)	70%	15-20%
Semiconductor Technology Position	Advanced design and manufacturing	—

Solar Panel Production Share(percent)	80%+	8%

Government Expenditure (2024)(USD Billion)	$6,177 billion	$11,109 billion

Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillions)	$17-18 trillion	—
Total Nominal GDP(USD trillion)	$25.5 trillion	—

PPP-Adjusted GDP 2026(trillion USD)	$45.78 trillion	—

GDP Growth Rate (2025-2026)(percent)	4.6-4.8%	2.0-2.5%

Global Manufacturing Share(percent)	35%	15-17%

Government Education Spending Per Capita(EUR)	€467	€3,981

Expected GDP Growth Rate 2026(%)	4.5-5.0%	—

Government Health Expenditure(USD Million)	$620 billion (2023)	—

Global EV Production Market Share(percent)	70% of global EVs	~20%

Global Solar Panel Production(%)	80%+ of global output	8%
Solar Panel Production(% of global)	80%+	~10%
Global Solar Panel Manufacturing(%)	~10%	—

Tariff Vulnerability Impact(USD Billions)	$400-800B potential loss	—

Battery Production (LFP)(Percent (%))	94% of global	—
Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Production(%)	94%	~5%

Global EV Market Share(%)	15%	—

Tariff-Related GDP Risk 2026(% of GDP)	-0.3 to -1.0%	—
Potential GDP Loss from Tariffs(USD Billions)	Minimal (~0-100)	—
Potential Tariff Impact on GDP(USD billion)	Minimal (<$50B)	—

Projected GDP Growth Rate (2026)(%)	2.0-2.5%	—

Global Manufacturing Output Share(%)	~15%	—

Projected GDP Growth (2026)(%)	2.2%	—

Global Solar Panel Manufacturing Share(%)	<5%	—

Advanced Semiconductor Leadership(Market Share %)	Global leader in 5nm+ chips	—

Consumer Stock Market Confidence (Positive Outlook)(%)	50%	—
Stock Market Sentiment Drop (April 2026)(percentage points)	-32 points (61% to 29%)	—

S&P 500 vs Eurozone Earnings Growth(relative performance)	Baseline (S&P 500)	—

Manufacturing PMI Outlook(trend)	Cyclical pressure, modest growth	—

Interest Rate Environment(policy direction)	Modest rate cuts expected	—

Geopolitical Risk Exposure(risk level)	Tariff policy uncertainty	—

China's Economy

US Economy

Total Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillion)

~$31.7 trillion

—

Total GDP 2026(USD Trillions)

~27-28 trillion

$30+ trillion

Nominal GDP(trillion USD)

$31.8T

—

GDP Growth Rate 2026(%)

4.6-4.8%

1.9%

2026 GDP Growth Forecast(%)

2.3%

—

Per Capita GDP(USD)

$12,700

$89,500

GDP Per Capita(USD)

~$19,500-20,000

$89,000

Global EV Production Share(%)

70%

~15%

Global Battery (LFP) Production(%)

94%

—

Global Manufacturing Output(%)

35%

12%

Unemployment Rate 2026 (Projected)(%)

~4.1%

—

Unemployment Stability(outlook)

Expected stable

—

Advanced Semiconductor Market Leadership(Qualitative)

Limited by US export controls; dependent on SMIC/HiSilicon

—

Semiconductor & Chip Design Leadership(Qualitative)

Limited by US export controls

—

Semiconductor Design Leadership(Market Position)

Constrained by US export controls

Dominant globally

Nominal GDP (2024)(trillion USD)

$17.9 trillion

$27.4 trillion

Defense Expenditure (2024)(EUR Billion)

$296.5 billion

$925.8 billion

Defense Expenditure 2024(USD Billion)

€296.5 billion

—

EV Production Share(% of global)

70%

15-20%

Semiconductor Technology Position

Advanced design and manufacturing

—

Solar Panel Production Share(percent)

80%+

Government Expenditure (2024)(USD Billion)

$6,177 billion

$11,109 billion

Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillions)

$17-18 trillion

—

Total Nominal GDP(USD trillion)

$25.5 trillion

—

PPP-Adjusted GDP 2026(trillion USD)

$45.78 trillion

—

GDP Growth Rate (2025-2026)(percent)

4.6-4.8%

2.0-2.5%

Global Manufacturing Share(percent)

35%

15-17%

Government Education Spending Per Capita(EUR)

€467

€3,981

Expected GDP Growth Rate 2026(%)

4.5-5.0%

—

Government Health Expenditure(USD Million)

$620 billion (2023)

—

Global EV Production Market Share(percent)

70% of global EVs

~20%

Global Solar Panel Production(%)

80%+ of global output

Solar Panel Production(% of global)

80%+

~10%

Global Solar Panel Manufacturing(%)

~10%

—

Tariff Vulnerability Impact(USD Billions)

$400-800B potential loss

—

Battery Production (LFP)(Percent (%))

94% of global

—

Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Production(%)

94%

~5%

Global EV Market Share(%)

15%

—

Tariff-Related GDP Risk 2026(% of GDP)

-0.3 to -1.0%

—

Potential GDP Loss from Tariffs(USD Billions)

Minimal (~0-100)

—

Potential Tariff Impact on GDP(USD billion)

Minimal (<$50B)

—

Projected GDP Growth Rate (2026)(%)

2.0-2.5%

—

Global Manufacturing Output Share(%)

~15%

—

Projected GDP Growth (2026)(%)

2.2%

—

Global Solar Panel Manufacturing Share(%)

<5%

—

Advanced Semiconductor Leadership(Market Share %)

Global leader in 5nm+ chips

—

Consumer Stock Market Confidence (Positive Outlook)(%)

50%

—

Stock Market Sentiment Drop (April 2026)(percentage points)

-32 points (61% to 29%)

—

S&P 500 vs Eurozone Earnings Growth(relative performance)

Baseline (S&P 500)

—

Manufacturing PMI Outlook(trend)

Cyclical pressure, modest growth

—

Interest Rate Environment(policy direction)

Modest rate cuts expected

—

Geopolitical Risk Exposure(risk level)

Tariff policy uncertainty

—

Full Comparison

Attribute	China's Economy	US Economy

Total Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillion)	~$31.7 trillion	—
Total GDP 2026(USD Trillions)	~27-28 trillion	$30+ trillion
Nominal GDP(trillion USD)	$31.8T	—

GDP Growth Rate 2026(%)	4.6-4.8%	1.9%
2026 GDP Growth Forecast(%)	2.3%	—

Per Capita GDP(USD)	$12,700	$89,500
GDP Per Capita(USD)	~$19,500-20,000	$89,000

Global EV Production Share(%)	70%	~15%

Global Battery (LFP) Production(%)	94%	—

Global Manufacturing Output(%)	35%	12%

Unemployment Rate 2026 (Projected)(%)	~4.1%	—
Unemployment Stability(outlook)	Expected stable	—

Advanced Semiconductor Market Leadership(Qualitative)	Limited by US export controls; dependent on SMIC/HiSilicon	—
Semiconductor & Chip Design Leadership(Qualitative)	Limited by US export controls	—
Semiconductor Design Leadership(Market Position)	Constrained by US export controls	Dominant globally

Nominal GDP (2024)(trillion USD)	$17.9 trillion	$27.4 trillion

Defense Expenditure (2024)(EUR Billion)	$296.5 billion	$925.8 billion
Defense Expenditure 2024(USD Billion)	€296.5 billion	—

EV Production Share(% of global)	70%	15-20%
Semiconductor Technology Position	Advanced design and manufacturing	—

Solar Panel Production Share(percent)	80%+	8%

Government Expenditure (2024)(USD Billion)	$6,177 billion	$11,109 billion

Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillions)	$17-18 trillion	—
Total Nominal GDP(USD trillion)	$25.5 trillion	—

PPP-Adjusted GDP 2026(trillion USD)	$45.78 trillion	—

GDP Growth Rate (2025-2026)(percent)	4.6-4.8%	2.0-2.5%

Global Manufacturing Share(percent)	35%	15-17%

Government Education Spending Per Capita(EUR)	€467	€3,981

Expected GDP Growth Rate 2026(%)	4.5-5.0%	—

Government Health Expenditure(USD Million)	$620 billion (2023)	—

Global EV Production Market Share(percent)	70% of global EVs	~20%

Global Solar Panel Production(%)	80%+ of global output	8%
Solar Panel Production(% of global)	80%+	~10%
Global Solar Panel Manufacturing(%)	~10%	—

Tariff Vulnerability Impact(USD Billions)	$400-800B potential loss	—

Battery Production (LFP)(Percent (%))	94% of global	—
Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Production(%)	94%	~5%

Global EV Market Share(%)	15%	—

Tariff-Related GDP Risk 2026(% of GDP)	-0.3 to -1.0%	—
Potential GDP Loss from Tariffs(USD Billions)	Minimal (~0-100)	—
Potential Tariff Impact on GDP(USD billion)	Minimal (<$50B)	—

Projected GDP Growth Rate (2026)(%)	2.0-2.5%	—

Global Manufacturing Output Share(%)	~15%	—

Projected GDP Growth (2026)(%)	2.2%	—

Global Solar Panel Manufacturing Share(%)	<5%	—

Advanced Semiconductor Leadership(Market Share %)	Global leader in 5nm+ chips	—

Consumer Stock Market Confidence (Positive Outlook)(%)	50%	—
Stock Market Sentiment Drop (April 2026)(percentage points)	-32 points (61% to 29%)	—

S&P 500 vs Eurozone Earnings Growth(relative performance)	Baseline (S&P 500)	—

Manufacturing PMI Outlook(trend)	Cyclical pressure, modest growth	—

Interest Rate Environment(policy direction)	Modest rate cuts expected	—

Geopolitical Risk Exposure(risk level)	Tariff policy uncertainty	—

China's Economy

US Economy

Total Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillion)

~$31.7 trillion

—

Total GDP 2026(USD Trillions)

~27-28 trillion

$30+ trillion

Nominal GDP(trillion USD)

$31.8T

—

GDP Growth Rate 2026(%)

4.6-4.8%

1.9%

2026 GDP Growth Forecast(%)

2.3%

—

Per Capita GDP(USD)

$12,700

$89,500

GDP Per Capita(USD)

~$19,500-20,000

$89,000

Global EV Production Share(%)

70%

~15%

Global Battery (LFP) Production(%)

94%

—

Global Manufacturing Output(%)

35%

12%

Unemployment Rate 2026 (Projected)(%)

~4.1%

—

Unemployment Stability(outlook)

Expected stable

—

Advanced Semiconductor Market Leadership(Qualitative)

Limited by US export controls; dependent on SMIC/HiSilicon

—

Semiconductor & Chip Design Leadership(Qualitative)

Limited by US export controls

—

Semiconductor Design Leadership(Market Position)

Constrained by US export controls

Dominant globally

Nominal GDP (2024)(trillion USD)

$17.9 trillion

$27.4 trillion

Defense Expenditure (2024)(EUR Billion)

$296.5 billion

$925.8 billion

Defense Expenditure 2024(USD Billion)

€296.5 billion

—

EV Production Share(% of global)

70%

15-20%

Semiconductor Technology Position

Advanced design and manufacturing

—

Solar Panel Production Share(percent)

80%+

Government Expenditure (2024)(USD Billion)

$6,177 billion

$11,109 billion

Nominal GDP 2026(USD Trillions)

$17-18 trillion

—

Total Nominal GDP(USD trillion)

$25.5 trillion

—

PPP-Adjusted GDP 2026(trillion USD)

$45.78 trillion

—

GDP Growth Rate (2025-2026)(percent)

4.6-4.8%

2.0-2.5%

Global Manufacturing Share(percent)

35%

15-17%

Government Education Spending Per Capita(EUR)

€467

€3,981

Expected GDP Growth Rate 2026(%)

4.5-5.0%

—

Government Health Expenditure(USD Million)

$620 billion (2023)

—

Global EV Production Market Share(percent)

70% of global EVs

~20%

Global Solar Panel Production(%)

80%+ of global output

Solar Panel Production(% of global)

80%+

~10%

Global Solar Panel Manufacturing(%)

~10%

—

Tariff Vulnerability Impact(USD Billions)

$400-800B potential loss

—

Battery Production (LFP)(Percent (%))

94% of global

—

Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Production(%)

94%

~5%

Global EV Market Share(%)

15%

—

Tariff-Related GDP Risk 2026(% of GDP)

-0.3 to -1.0%

—

Potential GDP Loss from Tariffs(USD Billions)

Minimal (~0-100)

—

Potential Tariff Impact on GDP(USD billion)

Minimal (<$50B)

—

Projected GDP Growth Rate (2026)(%)

2.0-2.5%

—

Global Manufacturing Output Share(%)

~15%

—

Projected GDP Growth (2026)(%)

2.2%

—

Global Solar Panel Manufacturing Share(%)

<5%

—

Advanced Semiconductor Leadership(Market Share %)

Global leader in 5nm+ chips

—

Consumer Stock Market Confidence (Positive Outlook)(%)

50%

—

Stock Market Sentiment Drop (April 2026)(percentage points)

-32 points (61% to 29%)

—

S&P 500 vs Eurozone Earnings Growth(relative performance)

Baseline (S&P 500)

—

Manufacturing PMI Outlook(trend)

Cyclical pressure, modest growth

—

Interest Rate Environment(policy direction)

Modest rate cuts expected

—

Geopolitical Risk Exposure(risk level)

Tariff policy uncertainty

—

China vs US Economy Size

China's Economy

US Economy

Short Answer

Our Verdict

Track this comparison

Key Differences at a Glance

Key Facts & Figures

Key Differences

Related Comparisons

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More Economy

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Full Comparison

Visual Comparison

Pros & Cons

China's Economy

Pros

Cons

US Economy

Pros

Frequently Asked Questions

Resources & Learn More

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Full Comparison

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China vs US Economy Size

China's Economy

US Economy

Short Answer

Our Verdict

🔔Track this comparison

Key Differences at a Glance

Key Facts & Figures

Key Differences

Related Comparisons

Explore Entities

More Economy

People Also Compare

Full Comparison

Visual Comparison

Pros & Cons

China's Economy

Pros

Cons

US Economy

Pros

Frequently Asked Questions

Resources & Learn More

Learn More

Wikipedia

Videos

Full Comparison

Visual Comparison

Cons

Track this comparison