US vs China Economy 2026: GDP, Trade War, and Growth Compared

The United States leads China in nominal GDP ($32.4T vs $20.9T) in 2026, but China surpassed the US in purchasing power parity GDP ($43.5T) in 2016 and has maintained that lead since. The ongoing trade war — US tariffs averaging 30-40% on Chinese goods, China's retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural and technology exports — has accelerated supply chain decoupling, with manufacturing shifting toward Vietnam, Mexico, and India. China's growth (4.4%) outpaces the US (2.3%) annually, but its structural headwinds — a property crisis, demographic decline, and semiconductor export controls — make overtaking the US in nominal GDP this decade unlikely under current trajectories.