US vs China Tech Race 2026: Who's Winning in AI, Semiconductors, and EVs?

The US leads China in AI model capability and semiconductor design in 2026, but China has closed the gap faster than anticipated in specific areas — particularly in open-source AI models, EV manufacturing volume and cost, and domestic semiconductor production. The US-China tech competition is not winner-take-all: the US maintains dominance in leading-edge chips (TSMC fab dependency), frontier AI models (GPT-5 class), and enterprise software. China leads in EV production volume (70%+ of global EV manufacturing), solar panel production (85%+ global share), and has produced competitive open-source AI models (DeepSeek, Qwen) that challenge US commercial offerings. The genuine risk for US competitiveness is not losing the AI race — it's supply chain concentration in Taiwan-manufactured chips.